The facts, the sources, and the numbers – so you can decide what’s right for your home | Updated January 2026
Here’s What’s Happening – No Spin
You may have heard something about furnace regulations changing in Colorado. Maybe from a contractor, maybe on the news, maybe from a neighbor.
Some of what you’ve heard might sound like a sales pitch. We get it.
So let’s start with the facts – the actual law, the actual sources, and the actual numbers. Then you can decide what makes sense for your home.
The Law: Colorado House Bill 23-1161
In 2023, Colorado passed House Bill 23-1161, establishing Ultra Low NOx (ULN) standards for furnaces and heating equipment. This law is now in effect.
- What it does: Requires furnaces to produce significantly fewer nitrogen oxide emissions (pollutants that contribute to smog and respiratory issues).
- When it took effect: January 1, 2026 (now in effect)
- What that means for you: Equipment manufactured after December 31, 2025 must meet new standards – and that equipment costs significantly more. However, pre-regulation inventory is still available while it lasts.
You can read the full law here: Colorado General Assembly – HB23-1161
This isn’t a rule made up by contractors. It’s state law.
Why Does This Affect Pricing?
Here’s the technical part, simplified:
NOx Emissions Standards
| Classification | Emissions Level | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | ~80-100 ng/joule | Current furnaces |
| Low NOx | < 40 ng/joule | Moderate reduction |
| Ultra Low NOx | < 14 ng/joule | ~85% reduction |
To hit that Ultra Low NOx level, manufacturers have to redesign their equipment – different burners, different combustion chambers, more sophisticated controls.
That engineering costs money. And it gets passed on to you.
The Real Numbers
Let’s talk about what this actually costs. These figures are based on manufacturer pricing shared with Colorado contractors in November 2025.
Equipment Cost Comparison: 2025 vs. 2026
| System Type | 2025 Equipment Cost | 2026+ Equipment Cost | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry-level standard | $1,800-$2,200 | Not available | N/A |
| Mid-range standard | $2,200-$2,800 | Not available | N/A |
| Premium standard | $2,800-$3,500 | Not available | N/A |
| Energy Star (96%+ AFUE) | $3,000-$4,000 | $4,200-$5,600 | +40-60% |
| Ultra Low NOx | Not widely available | $5,500-$8,000+ | +100-200% |
What This Means for Total Installed Cost
When you add installation, labor, and materials (typically $2,500-$3,500), here’s what homeowners actually pay:
| System Type | Total Cost Today (2025) | Total Cost After Jan 1 (2026+) |
|---|---|---|
| Standard furnace replacement | $4,500-$6,500 | Not available |
| Energy Star replacement | $5,500-$7,500 | $7,000-$9,500 |
| Ultra Low NOx replacement | Not widely available | $8,500-$12,000+ |
The Manufacturing Cutoff Has Passed
Here’s something important that many homeowners don’t realize:
- Furnace manufactured before December 31, 2025 = Pre-regulation pricing, standard equipment (while inventory lasts)
- Furnace manufactured after December 31, 2025 = Must meet new standards, higher pricing
Colorado contractors can no longer order standard furnaces from manufacturers. The manufacturing cutoff has passed.
But pre-regulation inventory is still available – for now.
Your Options Now
If you need a furnace replacement, here are your paths:
The details:
- Standard equipment manufactured before December 31, 2025
- Pre-regulation pricing while inventory lasts
- Full capacity range available
- This is a closing window – when it’s gone, it’s gone
When it makes sense: If your furnace is aging and you want to lock in lower pricing before inventory runs out.
Once pre-regulation inventory is gone, you’ll have two options:
The details:
- Emissions below 14 ng/joule
- Up to 200% cost increase
- Limited capacity range (no large-capacity units yet)
- Elevation limitations (rated to 7,500′ currently)
When it makes sense: If you need non-condensing equipment or specific configurations that aren’t available in Energy Star options.
The details:
- 96%+ AFUE (high efficiency)
- Moderate cost increase (less than ULN)
- Full capacity range available
- Must be currently listed on Energy Star website – meeting efficiency standards alone is not enough
When it makes sense: Most homeowners who need post-deadline replacement will go this route.
Verify certification here: Energy Star Certified Products Database
Should You Act While Inventory Lasts?
This is the question that matters. And the honest answer is: it depends on your specific situation.
Yes, Consider Acting Now If:
- Your furnace is 15+ years old – Average furnace lifespan is 15-20 years. If your system is in this range, you’re likely within a few years of needing replacement anyway. The question becomes: pay $6,000 now while inventory lasts, or $12,000+ after it’s gone?
- You’ve had multiple repairs in the past 2-3 years – A $500 repair here, an $800 repair there – these add up. If your furnace is nickel-and-diming you, it’s telling you something.
- Your heating bills have been climbing – Older furnaces lose efficiency over time. If you’re paying more to heat the same space, your system is working harder than it should.
- You’re planning to sell in the next few years – Buyers look at equipment age. A new furnace can be a selling point. An aging furnace that might fail after inventory is gone at double the replacement cost? That’s a negotiating point against you.
No, Keep Your Current System If:
- Your furnace is under 10 years old – You likely have 5-10+ years of life remaining. Run it until it needs replacement.
- You haven’t had any significant repairs – A well-maintained system that’s running efficiently doesn’t need to be replaced just because of a regulatory change.
- Your heating bills are stable – If efficiency hasn’t degraded, the system is doing its job.
Maybe – Evaluate Your Options If:
- Your furnace is 10-15 years old – This is the gray zone. Some 12-year-old furnaces have years left. Some are showing their age. A professional assessment can help you understand where yours stands.
The Financial Math (For Those Who Like Numbers)
Let’s run a specific scenario:
Your furnace: 16 years old, working but showing wear
Estimated remaining life: 2-4 years
Scenario A: Replace Now (Pre-Regulation Inventory)
- Cost: $6,500 (mid-range system)
- Total investment: $6,500
Scenario B: Wait Until It Fails (After Inventory Gone)
- Cost: $12,000+ (Energy Star or ULN)
- Years of use from current system: 2
- Cost of repairs during those years: ~$500-$1,000 (estimate)
- Total investment: $12,500-$13,000+
The Breakeven Question
“But what if my furnace lasts longer than expected?”
Fair question. Let’s say your 16-year-old furnace runs until 2030 (5 more years). At that point:
- You saved the $6,500 replacement cost now
- You’ll pay $12,000+ in 2030
- Net: You delayed spending money, but you’ll still pay more total
The only scenario where waiting wins is if your current furnace lasts 10+ more years – which is unlikely for a system already past its typical lifespan.
What About Heat Pumps?
Heat pumps aren’t affected by the ULN regulation because they don’t produce nitrogen oxide emissions (no combustion).
If you’ve been considering switching to a heat pump:
- This regulation doesn’t change your timeline
- But it might make the cost comparison more favorable
- Heat pumps work well in Colorado’s climate (yes, even in winter with modern systems)
This is a separate conversation worth having if you’re already thinking about it.
Common Questions We Hear
“Is this just contractors trying to scare people into buying furnaces?”
We understand the skepticism. Here’s how you can verify:
- Read HB23-1161 yourself – It’s public record
- Check the Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment for air quality regulations
- Look at Energy Star requirements – The certification path is documented
- Ask any contractor to show you manufacturer pricing – we’re all working from the same data
The regulation is real. The pricing is real. What’s not real is the idea that you must do something – you always have choices.
“Can I still get pre-regulation equipment?”
Yes, while inventory lasts. Distributors stocked up before the manufacturing cutoff. But:
- Inventory is finite and depleting
- When it’s gone, your only options are Energy Star or ULN at higher costs
- No new pre-regulation equipment will be manufactured
For most homeowners, if your equipment needs replacement in the next few years, it makes sense to act while pre-regulation inventory is still available.
“Can I just repair my current furnace forever?”
Eventually, no. Parts availability decreases for older equipment. At some point, repairs become impractical or cost more than they’re worth.
The question isn’t whether you’ll need a replacement – it’s when, and at what cost.
“What if I can’t afford to replace my furnace right now?”
This is a real concern, and we won’t pretend otherwise.
Options to consider:
- Financing (many contractors offer payment plans)
- Home equity options
- Utility rebates (check with your provider – some offer efficiency incentives)
- Prioritizing other cost savings to budget for this
If acting now truly doesn’t work financially, the Energy Star path is less expensive than ULN once inventory is gone. It’s still more than pre-regulation pricing, but it’s not the full 200% increase.
What IMS Is Doing
We’ve been serving Northern Colorado since 1973. We’ve seen regulations come and go. This one is significant.
Here’s our approach:
- We’ll tell you the truth about your system. If your furnace has years of life left, we’ll say so. We’d rather have your trust than a sale you didn’t need.
- We’ll show you the numbers. Cost comparisons, efficiency data, expected lifespan – whatever helps you make an informed decision.
- We stocked up. Our distributor secured as much pre-regulation inventory as possible. Right now, we can still offer equipment at pre-regulation pricing. But inventory is finite and won’t last forever.
- We’re not here to pressure you. Urgency comes from the inventory situation, not from us. It’s a real constraint, but the decision is yours.
The Sources – All of Them
We’ve linked throughout this article, but here’s everything in one place:
| Topic | Official Source |
|---|---|
| HB23-1161 Full Text | Colorado General Assembly |
| Colorado Air Quality Regulations | CDPHE |
| Energy Star Certification | Energy Star |
| Certified Product Database | Energy Star Product Finder |
| NOx Pollution Information | EPA – Nitrogen Dioxide |
| Colorado Energy Office | CEO |
Your Next Step
If you want to understand whether acting while inventory lasts makes sense for your home, here’s what we offer:
Free Assessment
- We’ll look at your current system
- Tell you its approximate age and condition
- Give you an honest recommendation
- No obligation, no pressure
Your decision. We’ll give you the information. You decide what’s right for your home and your budget.
970-591-4715
The Bottom Line
Colorado’s ULN regulations are now in effect. The cost increases are real. The inventory window is real.
But so is your right to make this decision on your own terms, with complete information.
Whether you act while pre-regulation inventory lasts, plan for an Energy Star system later, or keep running what you have – it’s your furnace, your money, and your decision.
We’re here when you’re ready to talk about it.
